Have you ever wished you could know the future? Even though no one can know exactly what’s going to happen before it does, that doesn’t stop people from making guesses—or predictions—about what they think might happen.
- We hear lots of different kinds of predictions. Can you think of a few? (Possible answers: Sports games, elections or other public events, weather.)
- Have you ever heard a prediction, or guess about the future, that surprised you when it came true? (Give the students a few minutes to share. You may want to provide an example of your own.)
There are lots of different kinds of predictions, and some are more reliable than others. Scientists are very good at predicting certain events like eclipses, comets, and meteor showers. On the other hand, people who claim to know who will win a particular game or race are usually just guessing.
One of the most common kinds of predictions is the ever-present weather update! Meteorologists do their best using computers and satellites in space to try to figure out whether it will be hot or cold, rainy or sunny, windy or calm. Of course, they don’t always get it right—and things can change rapidly and unexpectedly. Let’s watch a video exploring why the predicted weather can sometimes be wildly different than the actual weather.
Play this video for the students [4:57; stop at 2:28]: Why it’s so hard to forecast the Midwest weather
While weather-predicting technology has come a long way, there are still limits on the accuracy with which meteorologists can predict weather. Some of these reasons are due to limits in technology, and other limits on predictions are because different regions have greater temperature extremes, making predictions more difficult.
Making accurate predictions is hard, even when it’s only a few days in advance. But there were many predictions about one event that were made many hundreds—even thousands—of years in advance. And they were exactly right! Let’s learn more.
